David Montgomery Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Houston Texans

Touchdowns

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 1:02 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-108/+106).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 10th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (59.3% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Texans.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have 132.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.
The Houston Texans have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 61.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

This game's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 3 points.
David Montgomery has run for 0.45 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in the NFL among RBs (91st percentile).
Since the start of last season, the feeble Dallas Cowboys run defense has allowed a monstrous 1.30 TDs on the ground per game to opposing squads: the biggest rate in football.

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