David Montgomery Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Houston Texans

Touchdowns

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 26, 2026 12:49 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+106/-122).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Houston Texans as the 10th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 58.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the end zone (58.9% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Texans.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to see 131.2 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
The Houston Texans have run the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.6 plays per game.
The Colts defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the most passes in the league (36.5 per game) since the start of last season.

Favors Under

While David Montgomery has garnered 39.5% of his team's red zone rushing play calls in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Houston's running game near the end zone in this week's contest at 55.6%.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack stats across the board.
David Montgomery has rushed for 0.48 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (91st percentile).
Since the start of last season, the stout Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered a meager 77.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 8th-smallest rate in the league.
Since the start of last season, the strong Indianapolis Colts defense has given up a mere 0.16 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing running backs: the 10th-lowest rate in football.