David Montgomery Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Houston Texans

Touchdowns

Houston Texans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 1:07 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-130/+122).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.9% pass rate.
The projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 8th-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 28.05 seconds per play.
The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
With an impressive 92.5% Adjusted Catch% (75th percentile) since the start of last season, David Montgomery stands as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL when it comes to running backs.
Since the start of last season, the deficient Bengals defense has yielded a colossal 72.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 7th-worst rate in the league.

Favors Under

While David Montgomery has garnered 39.3% of his team's red zone rushing play calls in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Houston's running game near the goal line in this week's game at 54.9%.
With an excellent rate of 0.50 rushing TDs per game (92nd percentile), David Montgomery places as one of the best rushing TD-scorers in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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