David Montgomery Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Houston Texans

Touchdowns

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 7:52 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+115/-122).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans as the 7th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.1% red zone pass rate.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.3 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-most plays in football last year, averaging a massive 60.4 plays per game.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.

Favors Under

Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bills, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 28.3 per game) last year.
While David Montgomery has garnered 35.4% of his team's red zone rushing play calls in games he has played last year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Houston's rushing attack near the goal line this week at 54.9%.
The Houston O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
David Montgomery ranks in the 1st percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs last year, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.
With a terrific rate of 0.42 TDs on the ground per game (86th percentile), David Montgomery ranks as one of the leading rushing TD-scorers in the league last year.