David Montgomery Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 47.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Texans being a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 129.5 total plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.
The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a massive 59.8 per game on average).
In this week's contest, David Montgomery is expected by the projections to land in the 78th percentile among running backs with 14.4 rush attempts.
After comprising 35.1% of his team's carries last year, David Montgomery has been more involved in the running game this year, now accounting for 52.2%.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 7th-least run-oriented team in the league (37.4% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Houston Texans.
David Montgomery has run for many fewer adjusted yards per game (30.0) this season than he did last season (41.0).
David Montgomery's rushing efficiency has worsened this season, averaging a mere 2.52 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.94 figure last season.
David Montgomery rates as one of the weakest RBs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a mere 2.26 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 16th percentile.
The Tennessee Titans defense has had the 9th-best efficiency against opposing ground games this year, surrendering just 3.86 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).