David Montgomery Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 12:37 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-102/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 69.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 3 points.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have 132.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.
The Houston Texans have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 61.0 plays per game.
David Montgomery has been a more integral piece of his team's ground game this season (52.1% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (35.1%).
With a remarkable total of 40.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (75th percentile), David Montgomery rates among the best running backs in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Texans to run on 39.9% of their chances: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
David Montgomery's ground effectiveness has declined this year, notching just 2.64 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.94 rate last year.
David Montgomery has taken a step back when it comes to picking up extra ground yardage this year, totaling 2.08 yards-after-contact vs a 3.17 mark last year.
The Cowboys defensive tackles rank as the 5th-best DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.