David Montgomery Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 2:33 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to see 131.1 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
The Houston Texans have run the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.6 plays per game.
The predictive model expects David Montgomery to earn 12.9 carries in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Our trusted projections expect David Montgomery to be a more integral piece of his offense's ground game in this contest (48.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (37.0% in games he has played).
David Montgomery has picked up 40.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the NFL when it comes to running backs (76th percentile).

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Texans to be the 10th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 41.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
David Montgomery's ground effectiveness has declined this year, notching a mere 2.66 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.94 rate last year.
David Montgomery has been less successful in grinding out extra rushing yardage this season, compiling 2.04 yards-after-contact vs a 3.17 figure last season.

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