David Montgomery Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 12:47 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-113/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 66.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 63.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 8th-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 28.05 seconds per play.
The model projects David Montgomery to accumulate 13.9 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs.
The predictive model expects David Montgomery to be a more important option in his team's ground game in this game (52.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (37.1% in games he has played).
David Montgomery has picked up 42.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (78th percentile).
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has produced the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, giving up 5.27 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 11th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 41.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
David Montgomery's running efficiency has worsened this year, notching a mere 2.97 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.94 mark last year.

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