David Montgomery Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing TD

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+190/-279).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +200 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 4th-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 49.9% red zone run rate.
David Montgomery has garnered 40.5% of his offense's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 77th percentile among running backs.
The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 8th-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.12 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
The Miami Dolphins defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-worst DT corps in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Bears are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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