David Montgomery Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 1:02 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-113/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have 132.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.
The Houston Texans have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 61.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
David Montgomery's 39.5% Route Participation% this season represents a significant gain in his passing attack usage over last season's 26.9% rate.

Favors Under

This game's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 3 points.