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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.3 per game) this year.

David Montgomery's 94.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a significant gain in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 69.7% figure.

The Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (87.8%) versus running backs this year (87.8%).

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Jacksonville's collection of safeties has been atrocious this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 14-point advantage, the Lions are a heavy favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.

Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions offense to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.72 seconds per play.

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