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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Houston Texans vs Detroit Lions

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-159/+123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -152 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -159.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Lions to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

David Montgomery's 12.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 7.4.

David Montgomery's receiving talent has been refined this year, totaling 2.1 adjusted catches vs a measly 1.1 last year.

David Montgomery's 94.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season signifies a remarkable improvement in his receiving prowess over last season's 69.7% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3.5 points.

The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.9% pass rate.

The 8th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Lions this year (just 54.8 per game on average).

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 10th-fewest in football.

This year, the stout Texans defense has conceded a measly 76.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 3rd-best rate in football.

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