David Montgomery Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+123/-162).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -148 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -162.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a colossal 62.0 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Bears defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears safeties rank as the worst group of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are overwhelmingly favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
The model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
David Montgomery's 38.0% Route Participation Rate this season conveys an impressive decrease in his pass attack utilization over last season's 56.7% figure.
David Montgomery's 1.0 adjusted receptions per game this year marks a noteable diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last year's 2.1 rate.
David Montgomery's 64.8% Adjusted Catch% this year marks a material regression in his receiving ability over last year's 88.0% figure.

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