David Montgomery Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 3:57 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the predictive model to run 65.8 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
The 5th-most plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 62.8 per game on average).
The Chargers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (41.0 per game) this year.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Detroit Lions ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
As it relates to defensive ends pass-rushing, Los Angeles's group of DEs has been terrible this year, ranking as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Lions rank as the 10th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.9% pass rate.
David Montgomery's 39.2% Route Participation Rate this season signifies an impressive decline in his passing attack usage over last season's 56.7% mark.
David Montgomery's 65.7% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a noteworthy regression in his receiving skills over last year's 88.0% rate.

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