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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+157/-217).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -211 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -217.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

David Montgomery has run a route on 57.1% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.

David Montgomery's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 86.8% to 93.5%.

The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 6th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The Chicago Bears O-line has given their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 41.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.

The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

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