David Montgomery Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 25, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+200/-275).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to notch 3.3 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
David Montgomery has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 12.6% since the start of last season, which places him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 49.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.0 plays per game.
The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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