David Montgomery Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 3:00 AM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a big 10-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
David Montgomery has run a route on 57.4% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 94th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to notch 3.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
David Montgomery has been among the best pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 3.2 receptions per game while checking in at the 90th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers project as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on just 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.