David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-118/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 129.5 total plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.
The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a massive 59.8 per game on average).
David Montgomery has run more routes this season (40.2% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (26.9%).
David Montgomery has accrued a massive 6.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
David Montgomery's 18.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year marks a material growth in his receiving talent over last year's 10.0 figure.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Texans being a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to pass on 55.5% of their downs: the 10th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Titans, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.8 per game) this year.
In regards to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Houston Texans grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.