David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 2:33 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+102/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Houston Texans as the 10th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 58.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to see 131.1 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
The Houston Texans have run the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.6 plays per game.
The Colts defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the most passes in the league (36.5 per game) since the start of last season.
In this week's contest, David Montgomery is expected by the projections to find himself in the 79th percentile among running backs with 2.9 targets.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. RBs since the start of last season, giving up 5.23 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.

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