David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Denver Broncos · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 12:36 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 60.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Detroit O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.
David Montgomery's talent in generating extra yardage have been refined this year, compiling 11.92 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 8.29 figure last year.
The Broncos defense has been torched for the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (42.0) to running backs this year.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script.
The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.5% pass rate.
The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
David Montgomery's 32.2% Route% this year illustrates a significant decline in his passing game volume over last year's 56.7% mark.
David Montgomery has put up many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (10.0) this year than he did last year (20.0).

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