David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 6:11 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to call the most offensive plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Lions have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 61.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Lions offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
David Montgomery's ability to grind out extra yardage has gotten better this season, notching 14.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 8.29 mark last season.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 4 points.
The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.4% pass rate.
Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Saints, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 34.7 per game) this year.
David Montgomery's 6.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 19.1.
David Montgomery has accrued substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (10.0) this year than he did last year (20.0).

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