David Montgomery Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

reorder

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a colossal 62.0 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Bears defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
David Montgomery ranks as one of the leading RBs in the NFL at generating extra yardage in the passing game, averaging an exceptional 9.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 93rd percentile.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are overwhelmingly favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
The model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
David Montgomery's 38.0% Route Participation Rate this season conveys an impressive decrease in his pass attack utilization over last season's 56.7% figure.
When talking about air yards, David Montgomery grades out in the paltry 17th percentile among running backs this year, with just -2.0 per game.
David Montgomery has put up quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (10.0) this year than he did last year (20.0).