David Montgomery Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Houston Texans

Carries

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 12:37 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-122/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -138 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Texans, who are favored by 3 points.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have 132.9 plays on offense run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.
The Houston Texans have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 61.0 plays per game.
David Montgomery has been a more integral piece of his team's ground game this season (52.1% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (35.1%).

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Texans to run on 39.9% of their chances: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Cowboys defensive tackles rank as the 5th-best DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.