David Montgomery Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Houston Texans

Carries

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 2:33 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-183/+152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ +152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to see 131.1 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
The Houston Texans have run the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.6 plays per game.
The predictive model expects David Montgomery to earn 12.9 carries in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Our trusted projections expect David Montgomery to be a more integral piece of his offense's ground game in this contest (48.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (37.0% in games he has played).
When it comes to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Indianapolis's group of safeties has been very bad since the start of last season, ranking as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Texans to be the 10th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 41.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

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