David Montgomery Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Houston Texans

Carries

Houston Texans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 1:07 PM EST

Analysis

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+114/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -154 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ +114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 8th-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 28.05 seconds per play.
The model projects David Montgomery to accumulate 13.9 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs.
The predictive model expects David Montgomery to be a more important option in his team's ground game in this game (52.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (37.1% in games he has played).
The Bengals safeties rank as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the league last year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 11th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 41.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.

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