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David Montgomery

David Montgomery Carries
Player Prop Week 11

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 14-point advantage, the Lions are a heavy favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.

Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.4% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

David Montgomery has earned 47.5% of his offense's run game usage this year, placing him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions offense to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.72 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Jacksonville's LB corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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