David Montgomery Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Carries

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Lions rank as the 2nd-most run-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 47.6% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to earn 14.8 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to be a more important option in his offense's running game this week (53.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (41.1% in games he has played).

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Seattle Seahawks linebackers grade out as the 5th-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

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