David Montgomery Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Detroit Lions

Carries

Detroit Lions vs Denver Broncos · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 2:26 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -100 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script.
The model projects the Lions to be the 7th-most run-focused team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.5% run rate.
The Lions have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 60.6 plays per game.
The projections expect David Montgomery to earn 13.4 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
After comprising 39.4% of his team's rushing play calls last season, David Montgomery has played a bigger part in the rushing attack this season, currently comprising 58.1%.

Favors Under

The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

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