David Montgomery Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-102/-127).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to accrue 13.4 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

The Bears are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
David Montgomery has been much less involved in his team's run game this year (44.2% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (74.1%).
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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