David Montgomery Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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David Montgomery

NFL · Player Props

David Montgomery

RB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

David Montgomery Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to accrue 16.9 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among running backs.
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.42 seconds per play.
David Montgomery has been much less involved in his offense's running game this year (44.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (74.1%).
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends rank as the best DE corps in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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