David Bell Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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David Bell

NFL · Player Props

David Bell

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

David Bell Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+210/-275).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -275.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.4 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects David Bell to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing offense this week (9.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.7% in games he has played).
The Cleveland Browns offensive line ranks as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
David Bell has been among the bottom WRs in the league this year, averaging just 1.3 receptions per game while checking in at the 25th percentile among WRs.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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