David Bell Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

David Bell

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM EST

Analysis

David Bell Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-125/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns will be rolling with backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Completion% in football (71.1%) to wideouts since the start of last season (71.1%).
The Cleveland Browns offensive line has given their quarterback 2.54 seconds before getting pressured (8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 4th-worst paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.42 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in football.
The Carolina Panthers defense has conceded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 129.0) to wideouts since the start of last season.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.78 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in the NFL.