Davante Adams Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Davante Adams

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 10, 2026 8:42 PM EST

Analysis

Davante Adams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+135/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -133 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Rams as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel last year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (34.1 per game) last year.
Davante Adams has accrued a staggering 108.0 air yards per game last year: 97th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Davante Adams's 63.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 88th percentile for WRs.
With a terrific rate of 0.88 per game through the air (100th percentile), Davante Adams ranks as one of the best receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL among wideouts last year.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The model projects the Rams to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Los Angeles's passing stats last year may be artificially too high (and running stats decreased) in light of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather in this week's contest.
The leading projections forecast Davante Adams to be a much smaller piece of his offense's pass game near the goal line in this game (29.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been last year (34.8% in games he has played).
With a subpar 55.3% Adjusted Catch% (12th percentile) last year, Davante Adams stands among the worst possession receivers in the league among WRs.