Davante Adams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Davante Adams

NFL · Player Props

Davante Adams

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 8:22 PM EST

Analysis

Davante Adams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-130/-102).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.
The leading projections forecast Davante Adams to earn 10.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
The predictive model expects Davante Adams to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass game in this game (31.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (25.5% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Los Angeles's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats decreased) on account of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this game.
The Broncos pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (63.1%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (63.1%).

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