Davante Adams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Davante Adams

NFL · Player Props

Davante Adams

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 11:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Davante Adams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The projections expect Davante Adams to total 11.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
The the Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass game metrics across the board.
Since the start of last season, the poor Packers pass defense has conceded a staggering 68.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have only 123.6 offensive plays run: the fewest among all games this week.
The Las Vegas Raiders have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 51.8 plays per game.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Green Bay's unit has been excellent this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the NFL.

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