Davante Adams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Davante Adams

NFL · Player Props

Davante Adams

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 3:51 AM EST

Analysis

Davante Adams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to notch 10.0 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
Davante Adams's 79.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 100th percentile for WRs.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Davante Adams's play as a receiver has declined this year, notching a measly 6.3 yards per game vs 7.9 last year.
Davante Adams's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 75.8% to 62.0%.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.2%) vs. WRs this year (63.2%).

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