Davante Adams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Davante Adams

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 8:18 PM EST

Analysis

Davante Adams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 74.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 75.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 74.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.
The leading projections forecast Davante Adams to earn 10.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
The predictive model expects Davante Adams to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass game in this game (31.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (25.5% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Los Angeles's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too high (and rushing stats decreased) on account of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier weather in this game.
The Denver Broncos defense has conceded the 6th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 119.0) vs. WRs since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. wide receivers since the start of last season, allowing 7.23 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in football.