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Davante Adams

Davante Adams Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Davante Adams Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Raiders are a massive 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

The Las Vegas Raiders have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Opposing offenses have averaged 45.8 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in football.

Davante Adams has put up significantly more air yards this year (116.0 per game) than he did last year (102.0 per game).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to be a much smaller piece of his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (26.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (37.1% in games he has played).

Davante Adams's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 75.3% to 59.6%.

The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 9th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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