Davante Adams Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Davante Adams

NFL · Player Props

Davante Adams

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Davante Adams Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+116/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -142 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Davante Adams has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 25.8% this year, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
Davante Adams has totaled far more air yards this season (125.0 per game) than he did last season (104.0 per game).
Davante Adams's 79.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 100th percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Davante Adams's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 75.8% to 62.0%.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.2%) vs. WRs this year (63.2%).
The New England Patriots defense has yielded the 4th-least passing TDs in the league to WRs: 0.62 per game this year.
The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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