Darren Waller Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Carolina Panthers

Touchdowns

Cleveland Browns vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 1:12 PM EST

Analysis

Darren Waller Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+355/-365).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Panthers to be the 3rd-most pass-focused team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 61.9% red zone pass rate.
When talking about air yards, Darren Waller ranks in the towering 91st percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accruing a whopping 40.0 per game.
Darren Waller's 32.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in the NFL: 87th percentile for TEs.
When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season.
Darren Waller's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 67.5% to 100.0%.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are forecasted by the projection model to run 64.4 offensive plays in this game: the 10th-highest number among all teams this week.
The 10th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Panthers since the start of last season (a lowly 55.1 per game on average).
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game against the Browns defense since the start of last season: fewest in the league.
The Browns defense has conceded the 2nd-fewest touchdowns through the air in football to tight ends: 0.26 per game since the start of last season.