Darren Waller Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Carolina Panthers

Touchdowns

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 7:37 PM EST

Analysis

Darren Waller Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+426/-524).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league in the red zone (59.9% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Panthers.
The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.5 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In regards to air yards, Darren Waller grades out in the lofty 93rd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accruing a massive 41.0 per game.
Darren Waller places in the 87th percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a colossal 34.0 mark since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The 10th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Carolina Panthers since the start of last season (just 55.1 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game versus the Falcons defense last year: 8th-fewest in the league.
While Darren Waller has accounted for 17.5% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be a much smaller piece of Carolina's passing attack near the end zone this week at 11.4%.
With a feeble 69.3% Adjusted Catch Rate (9th percentile) since the start of last season, Darren Waller rates among the worst possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to TEs.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest level in football against the Atlanta Falcons defense last year (66.4% Adjusted Completion%).