Darren Waller Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Carolina Panthers

Touchdowns

Carolina Panthers vs Chicago Bears · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 3:37 PM EST

Analysis

Darren Waller Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+495/-602).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -602.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Panthers being a -3-point underdog this week.
At the present time, the 6th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (61.0% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Carolina Panthers.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.6 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually cause better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.
Darren Waller has accumulated a colossal 45.0 air yards per game last year: 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense last year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
While Darren Waller has been responsible for 20.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played last year, the model projects him to be much less involved in Carolina's offense near the goal line in this week's contest at 11.5%.
Darren Waller profiles as one of the least sure-handed receivers in football among TEs, completing just 69.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 9th percentile.
The Bears safeties rank as the 6th-best safety corps in the league last year in defending receivers.