Darren Waller Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Darren Waller

NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · New York Giants

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Darren Waller Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a huge 13-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Giants to be the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the New York Giants offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap.
The leading projections forecast Darren Waller to accumulate 6.6 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
Darren Waller's 43.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 35.9.

Favors Under

The New York Giants offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Miami's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the best in the league.

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