Darren Waller Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Darren Waller

NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 11, 2022 12:15 AM UTC

Analysis

Darren Waller Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a massive 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Las Vegas Raiders have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 45.8 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in football.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Darren Waller's 42.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 56.6.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers grade out as the 9th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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