Darren Waller Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Darren Waller

NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Darren Waller Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling out backup QB Jarrett Stidham this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Raiders are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.19 seconds per snap.
Darren Waller's 35.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 56.5.
Darren Waller's receiving skills have tailed off this season, notching a mere 3.8 yards per game vs 4.9 last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (69%) to TEs this year (69.0%).

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