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Darren Waller

Darren Waller Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs

Darren Waller Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+135/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +135.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling out backup QB Jarrett Stidham this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • The Raiders are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

  • The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.19 seconds per snap.
  • Darren Waller's 35.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 56.5.
  • Darren Waller's receiving skills have tailed off this season, notching a mere 3.8 yards per game vs 4.9 last season.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (69%) to TEs this year (69.0%).

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