Darren Waller Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Darren Waller Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+116/-154).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 129.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Darren Waller has run a route on 89.3% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 100th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Darren Waller has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among TEs, hauling in a mere 57.3% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 2nd percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (70%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (70.0%).
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 5th-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.