Darren Waller Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Darren Waller

NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 12:47 PM EST

Analysis

Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (+100/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 8th-most pass-focused team in football (62.5% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Carolina Panthers.
The predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.16 seconds per play.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (37.8 per game) this year.
Darren Waller is positioned as one of the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a remarkable 30.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.
Darren Waller's 74.1% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a significant progression in his receiving talent over last year's 67.5% figure.

Favors Under

The Panthers are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
Darren Waller has compiled far fewer air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (45.0 per game).
Darren Waller's 23.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 37.7.
The Carolina O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.5%) to tight ends this year (67.5%).

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