Darren Waller Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 1:12 PM EST

Analysis

Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 63.7% rate of passing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 4th-most pass-focused offense in football has been the Panthers.
When talking about air yards, Darren Waller ranks in the towering 91st percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accruing a whopping 40.0 per game.
Darren Waller's 32.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in the NFL: 87th percentile for TEs.
When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season.
Darren Waller is positioned as one of the top pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 31.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 77th percentile.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are forecasted by the projection model to run 64.4 offensive plays in this game: the 10th-highest number among all teams this week.
The 10th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Panthers since the start of last season (a lowly 55.1 per game on average).
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game against the Browns defense since the start of last season: fewest in the league.
The Browns pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (73.2%) to tight ends since the start of last season (73.2%).