Darren Waller Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 7:37 PM EST

Analysis

Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-263/+218).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -161 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -263.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.5 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In regards to air yards, Darren Waller grades out in the lofty 93rd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accruing a massive 41.0 per game.
Darren Waller places in the 87th percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a colossal 34.0 mark since the start of last season.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the Carolina Panthers ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The 10th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Carolina Panthers since the start of last season (just 55.1 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game versus the Falcons defense last year: 8th-fewest in the league.
With a feeble 69.3% Adjusted Catch Rate (9th percentile) since the start of last season, Darren Waller rates among the worst possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to TEs.
Last year, the imposing Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded a feeble 39.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 5th-best in the league.
The Falcons pass defense has struggled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in the league.