Darren Waller Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Darren Waller

TE · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Darren Waller Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a huge 13-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Giants to be the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the New York Giants offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap.
The leading projections forecast Darren Waller to accumulate 6.6 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
Darren Waller's 43.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 35.9.

Favors Under

After accumulating 65.0 air yards per game last season, Darren Waller has seen a big decrease this season, now averaging 45.0 per game.
The New York Giants offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Darren Waller's 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season indicates a a significant reduction in his pass-catching ability over last season's 51.0 rate.
Darren Waller's 7.0 adjusted yards per target this season illustrates a a substantial diminishment in his pass-catching ability over last season's 9.8 mark.
The Dolphins pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus tight ends this year, yielding 6.10 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in the league.